28 April 2016
Should I Stay or Should I Go?
The Clash famously posted this question and on June 23rd we have got to let Cameron know.
Inevitably there are those who are campaigning for the UK to leave, as there are those campaigning for the UK to stay in, and the pros and cons of each have started popping up all over the place. We have summarised the majority of the ones that we have come across to date below, along with our views:
|Membership Fee||UK gets’ to keep the £8.5bn membership fee||That is 7% of what the NHS cost, so hardly a hugely significant amount|
The UK would get to keep the fee, but looking at the overall picture it’s hardly a big deal. Verdict:
|Trade||The UK would have the ability to negotiate its own trade agreements like Norway and Switzerland have done||Over 50% of UK exports is to the EU and this is made easier through the free trade agreement|
|EU members could take a UK exit badly. Allegedly France has stated there will be “consequences” if the UK left||The UK has a say in how the trading rules are drawn up|
|Studies indicate that the UK economy is likely to lose 2.2% of GDP as a result of leaving||EU is negotiating with the US to create the world’s largest free trade area|
|The same study indicates that the UK GDP could gain 1.6% if the agreement was re-negotiated.|
Despite the fact that the UK could negotiate its own agreements when leaving, the likelihood is that this won’t be made easy and could have a negative impact. Verdict:
|Investment||Britain could be able to re-invent itself Singapore style||UK could lose status as global financial centre if access to EU was reduced|
|UK leaving could trigger an EU collapse, and the UK could be seen as a safe haven from this||If the UK left Europe, car makers and other large manufacturers could leave the UK due to the tax-free exports to the EU disappearing meaning job losses and significant revenue loss|
Too many “ifs” on the Leave side. It could work for the UK, but it might not. Indications from (among others) BMW and Bank of America suggests that them leaving the UK in case of Brexit is real. Verdict:
|Jobs||A drop in immigration should mean more job opportunities for those in the UK||Research has shown that as many as three million jobs are linked to trade with the EU and these could be under threat if the UK left the EU|
|If labour shortages could not be filled with immigrants, economic growth could be slowed down|
|The best and brightest talents from overseas could be discouraged from coming to the UK|
|Free movement of people in the EU means more opportunities for Brits wanting to live and work abroad|
Inevitably heavily linked to the previous trade and investment sections, the job situation is looking brighter as part of the EU. Verdict:
|UK’s World Status||Leaving will give the UK a chance to re-establish itself as an independent nation||The UK would lose its influence in Europe|
|The UK will regain control over its borders and waters, including things like fishing rights||The US could view the UK as a less useful ally without EU influence|
|The UK could become an outsider with limited influence and few friends|
Undoubtedly the UK would regain control over its affairs, but could lose its influence and allies. Would that be worth it? Verdict:
|Security||The door is wide open to terrorist attacks by remaining in the EU, as the open border makes checking and controlling people much more difficult||The EU is an important ally in fighting international crime and terrorism|
There is no question that the UK would have greater control over its borders if it left the EU. Verdict:
Based on the above a “stay” vote would be the most sensible outcome, but it is obviously not as simple as that. Many people would argue the weight and possibly validity of the above statements, and to different individuals each of these mean different things. As a small example, if any Brits have any desire to work abroad EU membership is hugely beneficial. Conversely, those directly affected by some of the horrific terrorist attacks on UK and foreign soil will feel immensely strongly about national security and leaving the EU would make a lot of sense to them.
We are not here to tell anyone how to vote, as this will depend on a great many factors and personal circumstances. What we will say however, is that the UK’s geographical place as being on the European continent is fixed, and so regardless of what happens on June 23rd, the EU/Europe will always have a hugely significant impact on the UK and figuring out how the UK is best placed to handle this should be a consideration for any voter.
To go back to The Clash again; “If I go there will be trouble, if I stay it will be double...” do you agree? How would you vote? Go to our poll and let us know!BACK TO LISTING
24 July 2017
Adding value to a legal practice
21 July 2017
Industry 4.0: the game is changing
20 July 2017
Sell The Sizzle Not The Sausage!
20 July 2017
Is Print Media Dead?
29 June 2017